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arXiv: Physics and Society
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In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic andapply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected,Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a certain time, thebasic reproduction numberR0exponentially decays in time, as empirically suggestedby world data. Using this model, we were able to reproduce the real behavior of theepidemic within a confidence interval of 5%. Moreover, we illustrate possible futures...
Random walks process on networks plays a fundamental role in understanding the importance of nodes and the similarity of them, which has been widely applied in PageRank, information retrieval, and community detection, etc. Individual's memory has been proved to be important to affect network evolution and dynamical processes unfolding on the network. In this manuscript, we study the random-walk process on extended activity driven network model by taking account of individual's memory. We analyze...
#1Julie Rowlett (Chalmers University of Technology)H-Index: 8
In numerous contexts, individuals may decide whether they take actions to mitigate the spread of disease, or not. Mitigating the spread of disease requires an individual to change their routine behaviours to benefit others, resulting in a 'disease dilemma' similar to the seminal prisoner's dilemma. In the classical prisoner's dilemma, evolutionary game dynamics predict that all individuals evolve to 'defect.' We have discovered that when the rate of cooperation within a population is directly li...
#1Mario Coccia (National Research Council)H-Index: 29
This study endeavors to explain the relation between air pollution and particulate compounds emissions, wind resources and energy, and the diffusion of COVID-19 infection to provide insights of sustainable policy to prevent future epidemics. The statistical analysis here focuses on case study of Italy, one of the countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Results reveal two main findings: 1) cities in regions with high wind speed and a high wind energy production in ...
As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the virus spread, leaves a massive economic impact. In a country like India with 21.9 % of its population below the poverty line, lockdowns have a direct impact on the livelihood of a large part of the population. Our approach conforms to healthcare and state pract...
#1Y. F. ContoyiannisH-Index: 15
#2S.G. StavrinidesH-Index: 1
Last. S.M. PotirakisH-Index: 1
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The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed self-organized criticality (SOC), is adapted in the case of a virus-induced epidemic. In this version this physical model can distinguish the virus spread according to the virus aggressiveness. The study presented, highlights the critical value of virus density...
Universal spectral properties of multiplex networks allow us to assess the nature of the transition between disease-free and endemic phases in the SIS epidemic spreading model. In a multiplex network, depending on a coupling parameter, p the inverse participation ratio (IPR of the leading eigenvector of the adjacency matrix can be in two different structural regimes: (i) layer-localized and (ii) delocalized. Here we formalize the structural transition point, p^* between these two regime...
We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape of the epidemic dynamics is a large, complex system such as most of the social systems. In this context, complex networks are a great candidate due to its ability to tackle structural and dynamical properties. Therefore this study presents a new approach to mod...
Brazil's presidential system is characterized by the existence of many political parties that are elected for the Chamber of Deputies and unite in legislative coalitions to form a majority. Since the re-democratization in 1985, Brazil has had 8 direct presidential elections, among which there were two impeachments of the elected president. In this work we characterize the stability of the presidential regime and the periods of rupture analysing the votes that took place in the Chamber of Deputie...
This paper selects the NARX neural network as the method through literature review, and constructs specific NARX neural networks under application scenarios involving macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment. Through case studies on China, US and Eurozone, this study explores how those limited & partial exogenous inputs or abundant & comprehensive exogenous inputs, a small set of most relevant exogenous inputs or a large set of exogenous inputs cover...
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Combinatorics
Machine learning
Population
Mathematics
Complex network