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Risk Analysis
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#1Lisa A. Robinson (Harvard University)H-Index: 11
#2Ryan Sullivan (NPS: Naval Postgraduate School)H-Index: 5
Last. Jason F. Shogren (UW: University of Wyoming)H-Index: 3
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Numerous analyses of the benefits and costs of COVID-19 policies have been completed quickly as the crisis unfolds. The results frequently depend largely on the approach used to value mortality risk reductions, typically expressed as the value per statistical life (VSL). Many analyses rely on a population-average VSL estimate of $10 million; some adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. We explore the implications of theory and empirical studies which suggest that the relationship bet...
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#1Jianfeng Zhou (GDUT: Guangdong University of Technology)H-Index: 10
#2Genserik Reniers (TU Delft: Delft University of Technology)H-Index: 28
Major industrial accidents occurring at so-called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlations exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of the...
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#1Elissa C. Kranzler (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)H-Index: 2
#2Jeffrey CzajkowskiH-Index: 12
Last. Lin Jia Chen (UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)
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Hurricanes threaten the physical and financial well-being of coastal residents throughout the United States. Though hurricane-related losses are largely avoidable through property mitigation (e.g., structural modifications to existing homes), few homeowners invest in mitigation. Communication campaigns, which have influenced risk-related behaviors in other domains, hold promise for persuading coastal residents to engage in hurricane mitigation. The development of successful campaign messages rel...
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#1Paul S. Price (EPA: United States Environmental Protection Agency)H-Index: 21
All individuals are exposed to multiple chemicals from multiple sources. These combined exposures are a concern because they may cause adverse effects that would not occur from an exposure recieved from any single source. Studies of combined chemical exposures, however, have found that the risks posed by such combined exposures are almost always driven by exposures from a few chemicals and sources and frequently by a single chemical from a single source. Here, a series of computer simulations of...
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#1Klaus Lucas (RWTH Aachen University)H-Index: 16
Systemic risks, as opposed to conventional risks, bear the danger of destroying entire systems. Their understanding and governance remain a serious challenge. The phenomena of systemic risks show many analogies with those of dynamic structure generation in the systems of nature, technology, and society, including simple model systems of physics and chemistry. By analyzing these model systems, the elementary processes and the generic mechanisms by which they generate macroscopic dynamic structure...
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#1Gregory Levitin (Israel Electric Corporation)H-Index: 44
#2Liudong Xing (UMassD: University of Massachusetts Dartmouth)H-Index: 34
Last. Yuanshun Dai (University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)H-Index: 36
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For some critical applications, successfully accomplishing the mission or surviving the system through aborting the mission and performing a rescue procedure in the event of certain deterioration condition being satisfied are both pivotal. This has motivated considerable studies on mission abort policies (MAPs) to mitigate the risk of system loss in the past several years, especially for standby systems that use one or multiple standby sparing components to continue the mission when the online c...
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#1John C. Whitehead (ASU: Appalachian State University)H-Index: 39
#2O. Ashton Morgan (ASU: Appalachian State University)H-Index: 9
Last. Richard Sjolander (UWF: University of West Florida)H-Index: 4
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We use data from an Internet-based survey and estimate the benefits of an oyster consumption safety policy with the contingent valuation method. In addition to providing a context-specific estimate of willingness-to-pay for oyster safety, we consider an important issue in the contingent valuation mortality risk reduction literature. A number of studies find that willingness-to-pay for mortality risk reduction is not sensitive to the scope of the risk change. We present the scope test as a differ...
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Countries face different poliovirus risks, which imply different benefits associated with continued and future use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). With the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) continuing to extend its timeline for ending the transmission of all wild polioviruses and to introduce new poliovirus vaccines, the polio vaccine supply chain continues to expand in complexity. The increased complexity leads to significant uncertainty ab...
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#1Jade Mitchell (MSU: Michigan State University)H-Index: 7
#2Kara Dean (MSU: Michigan State University)H-Index: 1
Last. Charles N. Haas (Drexel University)H-Index: 42
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This study develops dose-response models for Ebolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolized Ebolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta-Poisson models were fit to ...
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This article aims to demonstrate that risk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about-its foundation and main features-and how it is used to gain knowledge and improve communication and decision making in real-life situations. The article seeks to meet this challenge, by presenting three examples, showing how risk science works to gain new generic, fundamental knowledge on risk...
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