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A. Dey
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
9Publications
2H-index
19Citations
Publications 9
Newest
#1R. Mandal (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 5
#2S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
Last.D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
view all 7 authors...
Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95th pe...
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#1Suryachandra A. Rao (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 25
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AbstractIn spite of the Summer Monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts towards improving its prediction and simulatio...
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#1A. Dey (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 2
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last.S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
view all 7 authors...
Several methods are available to track the intraseasonal oscillation, namely the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). However, no methods to track both the modes in a uniform framework for real-time application exist. A new method to track the smooth propagation of the MJO and MISO is proposed to use it for real-time monitoring. The new approach is based on extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis of the combined field of meridionally averag...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last.S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
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AbstractUnder the National Monsoon Mission Project initiated by the government of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, an indigenous dynamical ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model, for extended-range (~15–20 days in advance) prediction. The forecasts are generated for the entire year covering the southwest monsoon, the northeast monsoon, and th...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Saranya Ganesh (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 1
#2S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
Last.R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
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An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the performance of a multi-model ensemble prediction system (MMEPS) in the extended range prediction of genesis and track of cyclonic storms (CS) over North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the onset phase of Indian summer monsoon. The MMEPS comprises of National Centres for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 and its atmospheric component, Global Forecast System version 2, at two different resolutions. In this study, we analyse ...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
#2R. Mandal (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 5
Last.M. Rajeevan (Government of India)H-Index: 33
view all 11 authors...
Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions’s climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15–20 days). Consider...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Saranya Ganesh (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 1
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last.R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
view all 8 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last.R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
view all 10 authors...
The onset/progression phase of theIndian summer monsoon (ISM) is very crucial for the agricultural sector of the country as it has strong bearing on the sowing of kharif crops, which in turn affects overall food grain production and hence food security. The recent ISMs of 2013 and 2014 exhibited quite distinct progression phases. While 2013 had one of the fastest advancement in the last 70 years, 2014 witnessed a comparatively lethargic progression phase. The major difference was felt in the ear...
5 CitationsSource
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last.N. Borah (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 9
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The real-time validation of any strategy to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall requires comprehensive assessment of performance of the model on sub-seasonal scale. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach based on the NCEP-CFS version 2 models, as developed and reported earlier, has been employed to forecast the 2014 monsoon season on the extended range scale with 3-4 pentad lead time (where a pentad corresponds to five-day average). The present study reports the broad performance of the...
9 CitationsSource
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