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Ajay Agrawal
University of Toronto
73Publications
25H-index
4,547Citations
Publications 74
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#1Ajay Agrawal (U of T: University of Toronto)H-Index: 25
#2John McHale (National University of Ireland, Galway)H-Index: 14
Last.Alexander Oettl (Georgia Institute of Technology)H-Index: 10
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Abstract The recruitment of foreign-trained scientists enhances US science through an expanded workforce but could also cause harm by displacing better connected domestically-trained scientists, thereby reducing localized knowledge spillovers. We develop a model in which a sufficient condition for the absence of overall harm is that foreign-trained scientists generate at least the same level of localized spillovers as the domestically-trained scientists they displace. To test this condition, we ...
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#1Ajay Agrawal (NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research)H-Index: 25
#2Joshua S. Gans (NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research)H-Index: 1
Last.Avi Goldfarb (NBER: National Bureau of Economic Research)H-Index: 2
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Recent advances in artificial intelligence are primarily driven by machine learning, a prediction technology. Prediction is useful because it is an input into decision-making. In order to appreciate the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs, it is important to understand the relative roles of prediction and decision tasks. We describe and provide examples of how artificial intelligence will affect labor, emphasizing differences between when automating prediction leads to automating decisions...
2 CitationsSource
#1Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
#2Joshua S. GansH-Index: 33
Last.Avi GoldfarbH-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Source
#1Ajay Agrawal (U of T: University of Toronto)H-Index: 25
#2Christian Catalini (MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology)H-Index: 13
Last.Hong Luo (Harvard University)H-Index: 4
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The relationship between slack resources and innovation is complex, with the literature linking slack to both breakthrough innovations and resource misallocation. We reconcile these conflicting vie...
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#1Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
#2Joshua S. GansH-Index: 33
Last.Avi GoldfarbH-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) – a general purpose technology affecting many industries - has been focused on advances in machine learning, which recast as a quality adjusted drop in the price of prediction. How will this sharp drop in price impact society? Policy will influence the impact on two key dimensions: diffusion and consequences. First, in addition to subsidies and IP policy that will influence the diffusion of AI in ways similar to their effect on other technologies...
3 CitationsSource
#1Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
#2Joshua S. GansH-Index: 33
Last.Avi GoldfarbH-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Based on recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), we examine what type of human labor will be a substitute versus a complement to emerging technologies. We argue that these recent developments reduce the costs of providing a particular set of tasks – prediction tasks. Prediction about uncertain states of the world is an input into decision-making. We show that prediction allows riskier decisions to be taken and this is its impact on observed productivity although it coul...
3 CitationsSource
#1Avi GoldfarbH-Index: 33
#2Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
Last.Joshua S. GansH-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
36 Citations
#1Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
#2John McHaleH-Index: 14
Last.Alexander OettlH-Index: 10
view all 3 authors...
Innovation is often predicated on discovering useful new combinations of existing knowledge in highly complex knowledge spaces. These needle-in-a-haystack type problems are pervasive in fields like genomics, drug discovery, materials science, and particle physics. We develop a combinatorial-based knowledge production function and embed it in the classic Jones growth model (1995) to explore how breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) that dramatically improve prediction accuracy about which...
Source
#1Ajay AgrawalH-Index: 25
#2John McHaleH-Index: 14
Last.Alexander OettlH-Index: 10
view all 3 authors...
The recruitment of foreign scientists enhances US science through an expanded workforce but could also cause harm by displacing better connected domestic scientists, thereby reducing localized knowledge spillovers. We develop a model in which a sufficient condition for the absence of overall harm is that immigrant scientists generate at least the same level of localized spillovers as the domestic scientists they displace. To test this condition, we conduct an experiment in which each immigrant h...
Source
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