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Dandan Liu
Kent State University
14Publications
4H-index
67Citations
Publications 14
Newest
#1Michael A. Ellis (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
This paper investigates the influence of the economic forecasts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members on the committee’s policy deliberations and finds evidence that the policy preferences of only the voting Federal Reserve Bank presidents are influenced by other members’ forecasts.
#1Dandan LiuH-Index: 4
#2Xiaoling PuH-Index: 1
Last.Mary E. Schramm (Quinnipiac University)H-Index: 1
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Traditionally, firms in the pharmaceutical industry have depended on their internal research and development (R&D) capabilities to maintain a productive new product pipeline. During the past two decades, however, the industry's pipeline productivity has decreased compromising the industry's ability to meet shareholder expectations. As a strategy to invigorate pipeline productivity, and impact financial performance, pharmaceutical firms have increased utilization of strategic technical alliances....
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Julie K. Smith (Lafayette College)H-Index: 6
This paper uses the forecast from a random walk model of inflation as a benchmark to test and compare the forecast performance of several alternatives of future inflation, including the Greenbook forecast by the Fed staff, the Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecast, CPI inflation minus food and energy, CPI weighted median inflation, and CPI trimmed mean inflation. The Greenbook forecast was found in previous literature to be a better forecast than other private sector forecasts. Our ...
#1Michael A. Ellis (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
This paper compares the economic forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then investigates the value of each group's forecasts in supplementing the forecasts of the Board of Governors' staff. We find that the presidents tend to forecast higher inflation and real GDP growth, and lower unemployment than the members of the Board of Governors. We also find that the presidents' real GDP and unemployment rate forecasts add value to the real econo...
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Dennis W. Jansen (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 21
The traditional Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is widely used to trace out the effects of monetary policy innovations on the economy. However, this method suffers from the curse of dimensionality, so that in practice VARs are estimated on a limited number of variables, leading to a potential missing information problem. In this article we use the method of structural factor analysis to evaluate the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in a data rich environment. This met...
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Rui Li (Beihang University)H-Index: 4
Last.Jijun Tan (SUFE: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)H-Index: 1
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In this paper, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real-business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burside et al. (Eur Econ Rev 40:861–869, 1996), who showed that the correlation between technology s...
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets us...
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Dennis W. Jansen (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 21
This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, ...
#1Dandan Liu (KSU: Kent State University)H-Index: 4
#2Rui Li (Beihang University)H-Index: 4
Last.Zijun Wang (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 19
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In this article, we propose a model selection approach for testing structural breaks in a semiparametric panel varying coefficient model. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed model selection approach performs well in finite sample settings. Applying the method to an empirical data, we find evidence of structural breaks in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) health expenditure data by allowing for income elasticity to be state (income)-dependent. The relationship...
#1Dandan Liu (BGSU: Bowling Green State University)H-Index: 4
#2Dennis W. Jansen (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 21
Abstract The use of a small number of underlying factors to summarize the information from a much larger set of information variables is one of the new frontiers in forecasting. In prior work, the estimated factors have not usually had a structural interpretation and the factors have not been chosen on a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose several variants of a general structural factor forecasting model, and use these to forecast certain key macroeconomic variables. We make the choice o...
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