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Carel Pretorius
Stellenbosch University
EpidemiologyPsychological interventionPopulationMedicineEnvironmental health
43Publications
15H-index
1,025Citations
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Publications 44
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INTRODUCTION: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries. METHODS: We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout sc...
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Last. Katharine KripkeH-Index: 10
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Background Expanded HIV prevention options are needed to increase uptake of HIV prevention among women, especially in generalized epidemics. As the dapivirine vaginal ring moves forward through regulatory review and open-label extension studies, the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this new prevention method are not fully known. We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the ring in different implementation scenarios alongside scale-up o...
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#1Peter J. Dodd (University of Sheffield)H-Index: 15
#2Carel PretoriusH-Index: 15
Last. B. G. Williams (Stellenbosch University)
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In this chapter, we focus on mathematical models of tuberculosis epidemiology (TB) that include interactions with HIV and an explicit representation of transmission. We review the natural history of TB and illustrate how its features are simplified and incorporated in mathematical models. We then review the ways HIV influences the natural history of TB, the interventions that have been considered in models, and the way these individual-level effects are represented in models. We then go on to co...
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#1Ambinintsoa H. Ralaidovy (WHO: World Health Organization)H-Index: 1
#2Chaitra Gopalappa (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 11
Last. Jeremy A. Lauer (WHO: World Health Organization)H-Index: 23
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Following the adoption of the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs 2013–2020, an update to the Appendix 3 of the action plan was requested by Member States in 2016, endorsed by the Seventieth World Health Assembly in May 2017 and provides a list of recommended NCD interventions. The main contribution of this paper is to present results of analyses identifying how decision makers can achieve maximum health gain using the cancer interventions listed in the Appendix 3. We also ...
1 CitationsSource
#1Dan Chisholm (WHO: World Health Organization)H-Index: 51
#2Daniela Moro (University of Cagliari)H-Index: 3
Last. Rehm Jürgen (U of T: University of Toronto)H-Index: 1
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Objective: Evidence on the comparative cost-effectiveness of alcohol control strategies is a relevant input into public policy and resource allocation. At the global level, this evidence has been used to identify so-called best buys for noncommunicable disease prevention and control. This article uses global evidence on alcohol use exposures and risk relations, as well as on intervention costs and impacts, to re-examine the comparative cost-effectiveness of a range of alcohol control strategies....
15 CitationsSource
#1Eline L. KorenrompH-Index: 34
#2S. Guy MahianéH-Index: 3
Last. Jane RowleyH-Index: 8
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We estimated national-level trends in the prevalence of probable active syphilis in adult women using the Spectrum Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) model to inform program planning, target-setting, and progress evaluation in STI control. The model fitted smoothed-splines polynomial regressions to data from antenatal clinic surveys and screening and representative household surveys, adjusted for diagnostic test performance and weighted by national coverage. Eligible countries had ≥1 data poi...
6 CitationsSource
#1Marek LalliH-Index: 6
#2Matthew HamiltonH-Index: 3
Last. Rein M. G. J. HoubenH-Index: 21
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Increasing case notifications is one of the top programmatic priorities of National TB Control Programmes (NTPs). To find more cases, NTPs often need to consider expanding TB case-detection activities to populations with increasingly low prevalence of disease. Together with low-specificity diagnostic algorithms, these strategies can lead to an increasingly high number of false positive diagnoses, which has important adverse consequences. We apply TIME, a widely-used country-level model, to quant...
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#1Chaitra Gopalappa (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 11
#2Jiachen Guo (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 1
Last. Melanie Bertram (WHO: World Health Organization)H-Index: 21
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Implementation of organized cancer screening and prevention programs in high-income countries (HICs) has considerably decreased cancer-related incidence and mortality. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), screening and early diagnosis programs are generally unavailable, and most cancers are diagnosed in late stages when survival is very low. Analyzing the cost-effectiveness of alternative cancer control programs and estimating resource needs will help prioritize interventions in LMICs. H...
2 CitationsSource
#1Eline L. KorenrompH-Index: 34
#2Guy MahianéH-Index: 4
Last. Teodora Wi (WHO: World Health Organization)H-Index: 12
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Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national cover...
11 CitationsSource
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