Michael A. Johansson
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
OutbreakVirologyZika virusDengue feverBiology
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Publications 88
#1Shaun Truelove (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
Last. Michael A. JohanssonH-Index: 25
view all 7 authors...
Although the United States (U.S.) declared measles eliminated in 2000, so long as measles circulates globally, continued importations will trigger sporadic U.S. outbreaks. The United States is highly connected to the rest of the world, and importations occur largely as a result of air travel by U.S. residents and international visitors. We developed a model to assess the risk of measles virus importation from Europe, Asia, and Africa through air travel. We projected 308 (95% prediction interval,...
#1Sarah F. McGough (Harvard University)H-Index: 2
#2Michael A. Johansson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 25
Last. Nicolas A. Menzies (Harvard University)H-Index: 11
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Achieving accurate, real-time estimates of disease activity is challenged by delays in case reporting. "Nowcast" approaches attempt to estimate the complete case counts for a given reporting date, using a time series of case reports that is known to be incomplete due to reporting delays. Modeling the reporting delay distribution is a common feature of nowcast approaches. However, many nowcast approaches ignore a crucial feature of infectious disease transmission-that future cases are intrinsical...
2 CitationsSource
#1Simon Pollett (WRAIR: Walter Reed Army Institute of Research)H-Index: 9
#2J R Fauver (Yale University)
Last. Nathan D. Grubaugh (Yale University)H-Index: 17
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Next-generation sequencing technologies, exponential increases in the availability of virus genomic data, and ongoing advances in phylogenomic methods have made genomic epidemiology an increasingly powerful tool for public health response to a range of mosquito-borne virus outbreaks. In this review, we offer a brief primer on the scope and methods of phylogenomic analyses that can answer key epidemiological questions during mosquito-borne virus public health emergencies. We then focus on case ex...
#1Matthew Biggerstaff (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 22
#2Fredrick Scott Dahlgren (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 1
Last. Joseph T. Wu (HKU: University of Hong Kong)H-Index: 29
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Health planners from global to local levels must anticipate year‐to‐year and week‐to‐week variation in seasonal influenza activity when planning for and responding to epidemics to mitigate their impact. To help with this, countries routinely collect incidence of mild and severe respiratory illness and virologic data on circulating subtypes and use these data for situational awareness, burden of disease estimates and severity assessments. Advanced analytics and modelling are increasingly used to ...
1 CitationsSource
#1Zachary J. Madewell (UCSD: University of California, San Diego)
#2Ryan R. Hemme (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
Last. Michael A. Johansson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 25
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Background Detecting and monitoring the transmission of arboviruses such as Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus, and chikungunya virus is critical for prevention and control activities. Previous work has compared the ability of different human-focused surveillance strategies to detect ZIKV transmission in U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, but whether virological surveillance in mosquitoes could represent an effective surveillance system is unclear. Objectives We leveraged a uni...
#1Chelsea S. Lutz (ORISE: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education)H-Index: 1
#2Mimi P. Huynh (Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists)H-Index: 1
Last. Matthew Biggerstaff (National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases)H-Index: 22
view all 18 authors...
Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 i...
1 CitationsSource
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global publi...
4 CitationsSource
#1Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
#2Craig McGowan (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
Last. Jeffrey Shaman (Columbia University)H-Index: 36
view all 16 authors...
Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. Accurate forecasts of key features of influenza epidemics, such as the timing and severity of the peak incidence in a given season, can inform public health response to outbreaks. As part of ongoing efforts to incorporate data and advanced analytical methods into public health decision-making, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized seasonal influe...
2 CitationsSource
#1Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
#2Dave Osthus (LANL: Los Alamos National Laboratory)H-Index: 7
Last. Jeffrey Shaman (Columbia University)H-Index: 36
view all 8 authors...
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not “proper” by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue. A key advantage of proper scoring is that it incentivizes forecasters to provide thei...
3 CitationsSource
#1Andrew Monaghan (CU: University of Colorado Boulder)H-Index: 2
#2Rebecca J. Eisen (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 35
Last. Michael A. Johansson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 25
view all 7 authors...
Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potenti...
1 CitationsSource