Justin Lessler
Johns Hopkins University
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Publications 207
#1Shirlee Wohl (Johns Hopkins University)
#2John R Giles (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 8
Last. Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 43
view all 3 authors...
Sample size calculations are an essential component of the design and evaluation of scientific studies. However, there is a lack of clear guidance for determining the sample size needed for phylogenetic studies, which are becoming an essential part of studying pathogen transmission. We introduce a statistical framework for determining the number of true infector-infectee transmission pairs identified by a phylogenetic study, given the size and population coverage of that study. We then show how ...
#1Derek A. T. Cummings (UF: University of Florida)H-Index: 51
#2Lewis J. Radonovich (NIOSH: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health)H-Index: 4
Last. Ann-Christine Nyquist (University of Colorado Denver)H-Index: 17
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BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-2 presents a large risk to healthcare personnel. Quantifying the risk of coronavirus infection associated with workplace activities is an urgent need. METHODS We assessed the association of worker characteristics, occupational roles and behaviors, and participation in procedures with the risk of endemic coronavirus infection among healthcare personnel who participated in the Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Trial (ResPECT), a cluster randomized trial to assess personal pr...
#1Shaun A Truelove (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 13
#2Lindsay T Keegan (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 4
Last. Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 43
view all 7 authors...
METHODS: We conducted nine distinct systematic reviews on PubMed and Scopus (March to May 2018). We pooled and analyzed extracted data to fill in these key knowledge gaps. RESULTS: We identified 6,934 articles, reviewed 781 full texts, and included 266. From this, we estimate the median incubation period is 1.4 days. On average, untreated cases are colonized for 18.5 days (95% CI, 17.7-19.4), and 95% clear Corynebacterium diphtheriae within 48 days (95% CI, 46-51). Asymptomatic carriers cause 76...
4 CitationsSource
#1Joseph Lemaitre (EPFL: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)H-Index: 4
#2Kyra H. Grantz (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 4
Last. Kathryn KaminskyH-Index: 1
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused strain on health systems worldwide due to its high mortality rate and the large portion of cases requiring critical care and mechanical ventilation. During these uncertain times, public health decision makers, from city health departments to federal agencies, sought the use of epidemiological models for decision support in allocating resources, developing non-pharmaceutical interventions, and characterizing the dynamics of COVID-19 in their jurisdic...
1 CitationsSource
#1Henrik Salje (University of Cambridge)H-Index: 23
#2Cecile Tran Kiem (Pasteur Institute)H-Index: 2
Last. Claire-Lise DubostH-Index: 2
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France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those 80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% redu...
77 CitationsSource
#1Lauren M. Kucirka (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 29
#2Stephen A. Lauer (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
Last. Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 43
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Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are being used to “rule out” infection among high-risk persons, such as e...
25 CitationsSource
#1Shaun A Truelove (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 13
Last. Michael A. Johansson (Harvard University)H-Index: 27
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Although the United States (U.S.) declared measles eliminated in 2000, so long as measles circulates globally, continued importations will trigger sporadic U.S. outbreaks. The United States is highly connected to the rest of the world, and importations occur largely as a result of air travel by U.S. residents and international visitors. We developed a model to assess the risk of measles virus importation from Europe, Asia, and Africa through air travel. We projected 308 (95% prediction interval,...
#1James A. Hay (Imperial College London)H-Index: 2
#1James A. Hay (Imperial College London)H-Index: 2
Last. Steven Riley (Imperial College London)H-Index: 48
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We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain biological and epidemiological insights from serological datasets. Characterising past exposures for multi-strain pathogens poses a specific statistical challenge: observed antibody responses measured in serological assays depend on multiple unobserved prior infections that produce cross-reactive antibody responses. We provide a general modelling framework to jointly infer infection histories and describe immune responses generated ...
#1Qifang Bi (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
#2Yongsheng WuH-Index: 3
Last. Tong ZhangH-Index: 5
view all 22 authors...
Summary Background Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures. Methods From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomati...
99 CitationsSource
#1Qifang Bi (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
#2Chengcheng Hong (HIT: Harbin Institute of Technology)
Last. Tong Wang (HIT: Harbin Institute of Technology)
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The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed healthcare care systems throughout the world. Understanding clinical progression of cases is a key public health priority that informs optimal resource allocation during an emergency. Using data from Shenzhen, China, where all cases were monitored in hospital and symptom profiles and clinical and lab results were available starting from early stages of clinical course, we characterized clinical progression of COVID-19 cases and determined important predictors f...