Justin Lessler
Johns Hopkins University
Publications 186
#1C. Edson Utazi (University of Southampton)H-Index: 2
#2Julia Thorley (University of Southampton)H-Index: 1
Last.Andrew J. Tatem (University of Southampton)H-Index: 63
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The success of vaccination programs depends largely on the mechanisms used in vaccine delivery. National immunization programs offer childhood vaccines through fixed and outreach services within the health system and often, additional supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are undertaken to fill gaps and boost coverage. Here, we map predicted coverage at 1 × 1 km spatial resolution in five low- and middle-income countries to identify areas that are under-vaccinated via each delivery method...
#1Marisa Hast (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 2
#2for theSouthern (UMN: University of Minnesota)
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 34
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Background Human movement is a driver of malaria transmission and has implications for sustainable malaria control. However, little research has been done on the impact of fine-scale movement on malaria transmission and control in high-transmission settings. As interest in targeted malaria control increases, evaluations are needed to determine the appropriateness of these strategies in the context of human mobility across a variety of transmission settings.
#1Qifang Bi (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 5
#2Katherine E. Goodman (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 3
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 34
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#1Xiang Li (Imperial College London)
#2Christinah Mukandavire (Imperial College London)
Last.Marc Brisson (Laval University)H-Index: 43
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Background The last two decades have seen substantial expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination with ten antigens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. Methods Independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatiti...
#1Shaun Truelove (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 7
#2Lindsay T. Keegan (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 3
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 34
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#1James A. Hay (Imperial College London)
#2Amanda Minter (Lond: University of London)
Last.Steven Riley (Imperial College London)H-Index: 35
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We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain additional biological and epidemiological insights from commonly available serological datasets. Analysis of serological responses against pathogens with multiple strains such as influenza pose a specific statistical challenge because observed antibody responses measured in serological assays depend both on unobserved prior infections and the resulting cross-reactive antibody dynamics that these infections generate. We provide a gen...
#1Joshua Kaminsky (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 1
#2Lindsay T. Keegan (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 3
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 34
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Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervention, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from thi...
#1Matthew Graham (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 1
#2Amy K. Winter (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 1
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 34
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All World Health Organization regions have set measles elimination goals. We find that as countries progress toward these goals, they undergo predictable changes in the size and frequency of measles outbreaks. A country’s position on this “canonical path” is driven by both measles control activities and demographic factors, which combine to change the effective size of the measles-susceptible population, thereby driving the country through theoretically established dynamic regimes. Further, posi...