Match!
Alexander M. R. Bakker
Pennsylvania State University
19Publications
9H-index
279Citations
Publications 19
Newest
#1Martin Vezér (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 3
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Nancy Tuana (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 19
view all 4 authors...
Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We il...
3 CitationsSource
#1Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Tony E. Wong (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 4 authors...
There is a growing awareness that uncertainties surrounding future sea-level projections may be much larger than typically perceived. Recently published projections appear widely divergent and highly sensitive to non-trivial model choices. Moreover, the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) may be much less stable than previous believed, enabling a rapid disintegration. Here, we present a set of probabilistic sea-level projections that approximates the deeply uncertain WAIS contributions. The projecti...
16 CitationsSource
#1Tony E. Wong (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this “fast ...
21 CitationsSource
#1Tony E. Wong (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Klaus KellerH-Index: 33
view all 6 authors...
Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to ...
12 CitationsSource
#1Kelsey L. Ruckert (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 4
#2Yawen Guan (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 3
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 5 authors...
Abstract Sea-level rise is a key driver of projected flooding risks. The design of strategies to manage these risks often hinges on projections that inform decision-makers about the surrounding uncertainties. Producing semi-empirical sea-level projections is difficult, for example, due to the complexity of the error structure of the observations, such as time-varying (heteroskedastic) observation errors and autocorrelation of the data-model residuals. This raises the question of how neglecting t...
4 CitationsSource
#1Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Domitille Louchard (AMU: Aix-Marseille University)H-Index: 1
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Long-term flood risk management often relies on future sea-level projections. Projected uncertainty ranges are however widely divergent as a result of different methodological choices. The IPCC has condensed this deep uncertainty into a single uncertainty range covering 66% probability or more. Alternatively, structured expert judgment summarizes divergent expert opinions in a single distribution. Recently published uncertainty ranges that are derived from these ``consensus'' assessments appear ...
14 CitationsSource
#1Tony E. Wong (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 6 authors...
Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easier to reproduce. These qualities make simple models useful for uncertainty quantification and risk characterization. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e...
2 CitationsSource
#1Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
#2Patrick J. Applegate (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 15
Last.Klaus Keller (CMU: Carnegie Mellon University)H-Index: 33
view all 3 authors...
Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide i...
6 CitationsSource
#1Andreas Sterl (KNMI: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)H-Index: 31
#2Alexander M. R. Bakker (PSU: Pennsylvania State University)H-Index: 9
Last.Renske C. de Winter (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 5
view all 7 authors...
The wind climate and its possible change in a warming world are important topics for many applications, among which are marine and coastal safety and wind energy generation. Therefore, wind is an important variable to investigate for climate change scenarios. In developing the wind part of the KNMI'14 climate change scenarios, output from several model categories have been analysed, ranging from global General Circulation Models via regional climate model (RCMs) to suitably re-sampled RCM output...
9 CitationsSource
#1W J KlerkH-Index: 1
#2H C WinsemiusH-Index: 1
Last.F L M DiermanseH-Index: 1
view all 5 authors...
The Netherlands is a low-lying coastal area and therefore threatened by both extreme river discharges from the Meuse and Rhine rivers and storm surges along the North Sea coastline. To date, in most flood risk analyses these two hazardous phenomena are considered independent. However, if there were a dependence between high sea water levels and extreme discharges this might result in higher design water levels, which might consequently have implications for flood protection policy in the Netherl...
26 CitationsSource
12