Match!
Stephen A. Lauer
University of Massachusetts Amherst
13Publications
6H-index
61Citations
Publications 14
Newest
A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global publi...
Source
#1Stephen A. LauerH-Index: 6
#2Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
Last.Laura B. Balzer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 12
view all 3 authors...
We often seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on a particular outcome in both randomized and observational settings. One such estimation method is the covariate-adjusted residuals estimator, which was designed for individually or cluster randomized trials. In this manuscript, we study the properties of this estimator and develop a new estimator that utilizes both covariate adjustment and inverse probability weighting We support our theoretical results with a simulation study and an ...
#1Alexandria C. Brown (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 2
#2Stephen A. Lauer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
view all 6 authors...
Estimation of epidemic onset timing is an important component of controlling the spread of seasonal infectious diseases within community healthcare sites. The Above Local Elevated Respiratory Illness Threshold (ALERT) algorithm uses a threshold-based approach to suggest incidence levels that historically have indicated the transition from endemic to epidemic activity. In this paper, we present the first detailed overview of the computational approach underlying the algorithm. In the motivating e...
Source
#1Stephen A. Lauer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
#2Krzysztof Sakrejda (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
view all 13 authors...
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe manifestation of dengue viral infection that can cause severe bleeding, organ impairment, and even death, affects between 15,000 and 105,000 people each year in Thailand. While all Thai provinces experience at least one DHF case most years, the distribution of cases shifts regionally from year to year. Accurately forecasting where DHF outbreaks occur before the dengue season could help public health officials prioritize public health activities. We develo...
11 CitationsSource
#1Evan L. Ray (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
#2Krzysztof Sakrejda (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
view all 5 authors...
Creating statistical models that generate accurate predictions of infectious disease incidence is a challenging problem whose solution could benefit public health decision makers. We develop a new approach to this problem using kernel conditional density estimation (KCDE) and copulas. We obtain predictive distributions for incidence in individual weeks using KCDE and tie those distributions together into joint distributions using copulas. This strategy enables us to create predictions for the ti...
18 CitationsSource
#1Nicholas G. ReichH-Index: 6
#2Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 38
Last.Derek A T Cummings (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 1
view all 6 authors...
ABSTRACTStatistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this article, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions, which emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single ti...
7 CitationsSource
#1Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
#2Stephen A. Lauer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
Last.Justin Lessler (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 38
view all 11 authors...
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We...
12 CitationsSource
#1Nicholas G. ReichH-Index: 6
#2Stephen A. LauerH-Index: 6
Last.Justin LesslerH-Index: 38
view all 11 authors...
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create accurate and actionable real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million p...
Real-time surveillance of an infectious disease in a third world country poses many problems that are not conventionally confronted by statistical researchers. As the first ones - to our knowledge - to attempt real-time forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand, we have faced these problems head-on in our quest to build a model that accurately predicts case counts in the presence of erratic reporting, shifting population dynamics, and potential climate change.
Source
#1Stephen A. Lauer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
#2Ken Kleinman (Harvard University)H-Index: 75
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
view all 3 authors...
The frequency of cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) in peer-reviewed literature has increased exponentially over the past two decades. CRTs are a valuable tool for studying interventions that cannot be effectively implemented or randomized at the individual level. However, some aspects of the design and analysis of data from CRTs are more complex than those for individually randomized controlled trials. One of the key components to designing a successful CRT is calculating the proper sample size (...
7 CitationsSource
12