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Nicholas G. Reich
University of Massachusetts Amherst
77Publications
20H-index
1,740Citations
Publications 77
Newest
#1Caitlin M. Rivers (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 11
#2Jean-Paul ChretienH-Index: 19
Last.Simon Pollett (WRAIR: Walter Reed Army Institute of Research)H-Index: 9
view all 15 authors...
Infectious disease modeling has played a prominent role in recent outbreaks, yet integrating these analyses into public health decision-making has been challenging. We recommend establishing ‘outbreak science’ as an inter-disciplinary field to improve applied epidemic modeling.
2 CitationsSource
#1Dylan B. GeorgeH-Index: 19
#2Wendy Taylor (Rockefeller Foundation)
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
view all 11 authors...
Forecasting is beginning to be integrated into decision-making processes for infectious disease outbreak response. We discuss how technologies could accelerate the adoption of forecasting among public health practitioners, improve epidemic management, save lives, and reduce the economic impact of outbreaks.
Source
#1Craig McGowan (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
#2Matthew Biggerstaff (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 22
Last.Wan YangH-Index: 19
view all 34 authors...
Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal pe...
6 CitationsSource
#1Stephen A. LauerH-Index: 6
#2Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
Last.Laura B. Balzer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 12
view all 3 authors...
We often seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on a particular outcome in both randomized and observational settings. One such estimation method is the covariate-adjusted residuals estimator, which was designed for individually or cluster randomized trials. In this manuscript, we study the properties of this estimator and develop a new estimator that utilizes both covariate adjustment and inverse probability weighting We support our theoretical results with a simulation study and an ...
#1Susan M Rattigan (UF: University of Florida)
#2Geoffrey J. Gorse (SLU: Saint Louis University)H-Index: 38
Last.Trish M. Perl (UTSW: University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center)H-Index: 28
view all 14 authors...
Source
#1Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
#2Dave Osthus (LANL: Los Alamos National Laboratory)H-Index: 7
Last.Jeffrey Shaman (Columbia University)H-Index: 36
view all 8 authors...
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not “proper” by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue. A key advantage of proper scoring is that it incentivizes forecasters to provide thei...
1 CitationsSource
#1Arianna Kazemi (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 1
#2Connor Kennedy (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
view all 4 authors...
Source
#1Lewis J. Radonovich (NIOSH: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health)H-Index: 2
#2Michael S. Simerkoff (NYU: New York University)H-Index: 40
Last.Trish M. Perl (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 61
view all 15 authors...
Importance Clinical studies have been inconclusive about the effectiveness of N95 respirators and medical masks in preventing health care personnel (HCP) from acquiring workplace viral respiratory infections. Objective To compare the effect of N95 respirators vs medical masks for prevention of influenza and other viral respiratory infections among HCP. Design, Setting, and Participants A cluster randomized pragmatic effectiveness study conducted at 137 outpatient study sites at 7 US medical cent...
2 CitationsSource
#1Alexandria C. Brown (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 2
#2Stephen A. Lauer (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 6
Last.Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
view all 6 authors...
Estimation of epidemic onset timing is an important component of controlling the spread of seasonal infectious diseases within community healthcare sites. The Above Local Elevated Respiratory Illness Threshold (ALERT) algorithm uses a threshold-based approach to suggest incidence levels that historically have indicated the transition from endemic to epidemic activity. In this paper, we present the first detailed overview of the computational approach underlying the algorithm. In the motivating e...
Source
#1Nicholas G. Reich (UMass: University of Massachusetts Amherst)H-Index: 20
#2Craig McGowan (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
Last.Jeffrey Shaman (Columbia University)H-Index: 36
view all 16 authors...
Abstract Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. Accurate forecasts of key features of influenza epidemics, such as the timing and severity of the peak incidence in a given season, can inform public health response to outbreaks. As part of ongoing efforts to incorporate data and advanced analytical methods into public health decision-making, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized season...
1 CitationsSource
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