We examine whether significant changes in ocean temperatures can be detected in recent decades and if so whether they can be attributed to anthropogenic or natural factors. We compare ocean temperature changes for 1960–2005 in four observational datasets and in historical simulations by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Observations and CMIP5 models show that the upper 2000 m has warmed with a signal that has a we...
A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather ...
Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be ...
The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population exposure to heat, and should impel countries to strive towards greater emissions reductions.